Will extreme weather change when (and where) you go on holiday?

A slew of heat-related deaths in the Mediterranean this summer have sparked important questions about how climate change will affect the future of summer travel.

A slew of heat-related deaths in the Mediterranean this year have sparked important questions about how climate change will affect the future of travel. Traditionally, summer is the peak travel season for famously sunny destinations like Greece and Italy, as visitors seek out beachfront getaways. However, as temperatures continue to rise across Europe, many of these bucket list destinations are becoming increasingly uncomfortable and even dangerous, leading travellers and tour companies to alter their plans.

Companies that offer outdoor activities are being hit particularly hard. For example, Follow the Camino, which organises walking pilgrimages along the Camino de Santiago, has noticed a distinct shift in both the times and routes that travellers are booking. Ciarán Bruder, the company's marketing communications specialist, says that the winter months traditionally get less bookings, but that's been changing over the last few years. "With the summers getting hotter, [we're finding] people would rather be rained on for a week than have heatstroke," he said.

Similarly, Intrepid Travel, which runs immersive travel experiences in destinations around the world, has needed to make frequent alterations to tours that include active itineraries, particularly in the warmer months. "We definitely have seen more customers start to move towards shoulder season for some of our active [tours], and we think the weather has played some part of that," said Hazel McGuire, Intrepid Travel's general manager for the UK and Ireland. "Likewise, we were seeing the trends on the ground [where] we were having to make a lot of changes… because of the temperatures during the day."

Heatwaves aren't the only weather pattern with the potential to change when you take your holidays. Other natural disasters, such as fires, hurricanes and floods, are also on the rise and will likely impact travel beyond the summer months. "Last year, globally, [Intrepid] saw 121 more incidents that we would relate to climate change," McGuire told the BBC. "Whether that was extreme heat or wildfires, flooding… we definitely are seeing a trend of more incidents on our tours that we're having to make changes."

According to a March 2024 report by the European Travel Commission, several destinations, particularly in the Mediterranean, are seeing significant reputational damage because of climate change events. The study also suggests that many destinations across Europe will start to see a shift in demand; whether that's a decrease in tourism during the hotter months, an increase in travel to more temperate destinations during the summer, or more travellers seeking out the shoulder season.

Indeed, cooler destinations such as Sweden, Iceland and the Netherlands are already seeing an increase in their summer bookings across the board. Luxury travel company Virtuoso Travel recently shared data with the BBC that shows a significant increase in summer bookings for Iceland and Sweden (49% and 47%, respectively). Similarly, Scandinavia has seen a 27% rise; the Netherlands is up 33%; and Norway and Ireland are up by 16% and 13%, respectively.   

In the meantime, tour companies and destinations are doing everything they can to ensure that visitors can have enjoyable and safe summer holidays despite the unpredictable weather. "The safety aspect is so vital," said McGuire, "We need to be very careful as a tour operator. We're responsible for our customer safety and we need to make sure that we are doing [what's best]."

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